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authoremkael <emkael@tlen.pl>2014-11-07 16:49:24 +0100
committeremkael <emkael@tlen.pl>2014-11-07 16:49:24 +0100
commitefcf12f3e6bb437f5089215fd81b2c924961e4d2 (patch)
tree16a877357c36b54f3a3f60ad63f880f4459e0167 /doc
parent50eda8dcf4c764493efe3cae4cf81df916ea2e7d (diff)
* disparity variation algorithm
Diffstat (limited to 'doc')
-rw-r--r--doc/ideas.txt1
-rw-r--r--doc/results.txt9
2 files changed, 9 insertions, 1 deletions
diff --git a/doc/ideas.txt b/doc/ideas.txt
index ec8f999..3c7f773 100644
--- a/doc/ideas.txt
+++ b/doc/ideas.txt
@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ Tables:
Charts:
- rolling average and deviation of rankings
- average ranking at the beginning of each championship season
+ - average ranking at the end of each championship season
- peak season ranking (MAX, MIN, AVG, STDDEV GROUP BY YEAR(date))
- top 5 of every season (on average) by decade
diff --git a/doc/results.txt b/doc/results.txt
index c353368..13a56f3 100644
--- a/doc/results.txt
+++ b/doc/results.txt
@@ -21,14 +21,21 @@ Specific rules regarding Elo implementation for this application's purposes:
* no minimum rating limit for driver is enforced
* drivers are rated from their first entry (there's no initial grace period)
* shared drive entries have the effective ranking equal to the average ranking of drivers sharing the drive; pending ranking points from duels of such entries are divided equally between drivers sharing the drive
+ * driver group disparity is varied to accommodate for dynamic shifts of relative performance within the F1 field (caused by technical changes) - see below
Other than that, standard Elo rating conventions apply:
* drivers start with identical initial rating
* duels between high-ranked drivers change their rankings by fewer points than duels between low-ranked drivers
+Field disparity change:
+ * higher disparity leads to more rating inflation - as disparity is a measure of rating difference that yields a certian probability of driver's victory, so higher disparity leads to more attribution for a victory to a driver (and less attribution to the shift of performance, e.g. car performance change)
+ * higher rating deviation in the months prior to a race suggests a shift in relative performance (some drivers gain a lot, some divers lose a lot), so there's a need for damping further changes a bit - by lowering disparity
+ * once the ratings are stabilized (meaning relative performance within the field had settled), disparity can be increased
+ * this helps with the initial "rolling start" phase of the ranking (1946-1949 races)
+
Specific parameters which are configurable:
* initial driver ranking
- * disparity factor (ranking difference which drops the possibility of lower-ranked driver's win by the factor of 10)
+ * initial disparity factor (ranking difference which drops the possibility of lower-ranked driver's win by the factor of 10)
* duel importance (base, i.e. for drivers ranked below importance thresholds) for all race types
* importance thresholds (for 50% of base importance and 75% of base importance)